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  • 2007 August

Exclusive: who / what is dweezel?

The Bootstrap Economist has the exclusive location where “dweezel” explains who / what it is.

So Google has lots of search results, and traditionally, people pay them money to come up on the top of the list. I used my “dual web identity” to make my content easily searchable. For example:

My new media resume (dweezel + david litsky)
http://urltea.com/131x

Continue reading the evolution of dweezel after the jump.

dweezel:

twit5:


Cash’s effect on the balance sheet.

Here is a chart on how cash is affected by changes to the balance sheet.


cash vs balance sheet

Uploaded with Skitch!

A detail that is commonly overlooked on financial statement analysis, is that A/R growth is a use of cash. Consecutive periods of A/R Growth, is an indicator that a company is becoming insolvent. In the UCA Cash Flow, these changes are reflected in net cash after operations (ncao) and are not available for debt service. A sign of further insolvency is a company has several layers of debt, with escalating balances outstanding and interest rates.

To mitigate this situation, growth must be limited.

ma.gnolia:


Community Banks

Increased inventories from the sub-prime mortgage crunch are affecting loans to prime borrowers that have borrowed against excess equity in their properties. These borrowers have over extended themselves, primarily funding undersold, speculative construction projects.Signs of a distressed community bank include:

  • rapid growth - increases to loans receivable outpace receivables collection, which reduces cash.
  • homogeneous portfolio - high risk if primary asset class becomes distressed.
  • credit quality - sudden and sharp increases to bad debt allowance and non-amortizing loans are an indicator of distressed assets.
  • cost of funds - the legal lending limit is directly tied to deposits and some community banks pay a premium to increase deposits. This is demonstrated through high-yield savings, money market, and three-month C/Ds. The higher the yield, the narrower the interest rate margin which leaves little flexibility for rate reductions.

For more information, please read the text.

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Market Depreciation

graph_2

 

An excellent article, Why the private equity bubble is bursting, by Shawn Tully.

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Consumer Confidence

Earlier this week, the Conference Board announced July’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 112.6, its highest level since August 2001 (Consumer Confidence Hits 6-Year High). The CCI is a lagging indicator, reflecting where the economy has been, but not necessarily where it is going. Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center states:

“An improvement in business conditions and the job market has lifted consumers’ spirits in July”

The monthly survey from which the CCI data is compiled, was completed on July 24th, two days before the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 310 points. Yesterday, a fluctuating week for Wall Street ended with the DJIA falling 281 points and government data demonstrating weaker than expected job growth, and unexpected rises in unemployment (Job growth weaker).

There was a net increase of 92,000 jobs in the month, down from 126,000 added in June, a reading that was revised lower in the latest report. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 135,000 gain in July.

The unemployment rate was 4.6 percent, up from 4.5 percent in June. Economists had forecast that the rate would remain unchanged.

The events from the past week suggest consumer confidence has peaked, which compounds the ongoing credit issues.


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